December LIBPA Newsletter
THE LADY’S ISLAND BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL ASSOCIATION
WISHES ALL OF OUR MEMBERS A
A HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON
In the past we have noted that with all of the hustle and bustle of the holiday season that whether it is
attending our normal monthly meeting or the annual oyster roast - it adds to the number of “things to
do” for our busy membership. In an effort to reduce the stress of the season we scheduled the annual
oyster roast in November and will NOT have a monthly member’s meeting in December. We thank
you for your support throughout the year, look forward to working with you next year and hope that our
small contribution has helped slow the pace of your holiday season, just a little bit.
Island Notes:
Therapeutic Solutions has relocated from Newpoint Corner to the corner of Oakwood Drive and Sam’s Point Road (directly across from the Valero convenience store). Bio Energetic Synchronization Technique (B. E. S. T) Practioners Martha O’Regan and Kim Godley of Therapeutic Solutions are pleased to announce they can now offer custom designed wellness plans based on individual wellness quotient and personal goals. They, along with Certified Wellness Coach Rob Gannon, invite you to stop by or call (524-2554) to obtain your wellness quotient or for an explanation of B.E.S.T. Additional information is available at www.besttherapeuticsolutions .com.

Say What! Craig Lewis of the Lawrence Group, who is one of the consultants writing a new City of Beaufort Comprehensive Plan, replied to a recent question regarding ways to improve the traffic on Boundary Street that if we would replace the swinging bridge with a more standard type bridge we would not have a traffic problem. Although perhaps not totally true it is something to be considered.

With sadness we note the final closing of the doors for the Donut Connection located in Celadon on Sams Point Road. This action was not only for the Celadon location but each of three sites (Celadon, Shell Point and K-Mart shopping center).

Good News! Omni East, the Lady’s Island branch of Omni Health and Fitness Center, located on Sams Point Road is beginning construction of a 1200 square foot expansion of their present facility. The expansion will provide additional space for aerobics and similar fitness training. It is great to see a business expanding in these challenging economic times.
Meet The 2009 President Of LIBPA:
Jon Rembold, who was recently elected to serve as the 2009 President of the Lady’s Island Business and Professional Association, is a 1995 graduate of the US Naval Academy with a degree in Ocean Engineering. After graduation he served as an officer in the Marine Corps. Following his service with the Marine Corps he worked as a quality control manager for a construction company and presently is employed as an engineering project manager with Ward Edwards. In addition to being a member of LIBPA he is active in St. Peter’s
Catholic Church and School, serves as a YMCA soccer coach, a member of the Beaufort Rotary Club, the Beaufort Soil & Water conservation District and was recently appointed as a member of the South Carolina Natural Gas Exploration Feasibility Study Committee. Jon and his wife Heather have 4 children and live on Lady’s Island.
Annual LIBPA Oyster Roast A Pleasant Evening For All:
For the annual LIBPA oyster roast held on November 12th the weather was great, the oysters tasty, the food brought by members delicious and a good time was had by all. The crowd was the largest to date. Once again Pat Harvey Palmer was the driving force behind the success of the event. In supporting roles were her husband Jim Palmer, Charlie Schreiner, Rich Tritschler and Bill Rice who once again contributed his “special chili” and each member who brought their special dishes. At the end of the evening those in attendance were once again reminded of what a special place Lady’s Island is and what great neighbors we have. As always, a special thank you is extended to Sheriff P. J. Tanner for his willingness to share the “Sheriff’s Camp” with our organization.
LIBPA Website Referral:
One of the benefits of being a LIBPA member is that your business web site can be linked to your member listing on the LIBPA web site (if you provide the site address to the web master). There is no charge for this service. A check of the individual referrals through this system shows that the following members had the highest number of hits in 2008.
Berry Island Café                                       Low Country Bicycles
Ashford Advisors Financial Services            Bundy Appraisal and Management
Bay Street Mortgage                                  Patterson Residential Homes
Advanced Real Estate                                New York Life Insurance
Accurate Reproductions                             Small Business Solutions

So far, in 2008, there have been 1008 individual visits to member’s web sites through their listing. We hope this service helps our member’s business.
2008 Membership Report: by Gail Clark, Membership
The Lady’s Island Business and Professional Association will begin 2009 with a total of 258 members as compared with 256 the
previous year. The membership is composed of 155 business members, 53 residential and 30 complimentary memberships.
Complimentary memberships are provided to organizations or individuals that support Lady’s Island and with whom we, as an organization, desire to maintain good communications. Examples of complimentary memberships include the principals of each of the schools on Lady’s Island (public and private), churches on the island and key individuals in various government positions.

Each year we rotate about 10% of the membership in that approximately 20 members will, for a variety of reasons, decline to renew
their membership and each year we are privileged to welcome between 20 and 30 new members. We take a very close and hard
look at the reasons provided by those that choose to not renew their membership.

The good news is that in 2008 we were privileged to join 26 new members and the bad news is that 33 members declined to renew
their membership. Of the 33 members who chose to not continue their membership 11 were significantly affected by the downturn in the housing construction business or relocated to other areas. To each of you who continue to support LIBPA with your membership              – thank you.

Although our membership numbers remain stable, please consider sharing the word with your neighbors, business associates and
friends regarding the role of LIBPA in the Lady’s Island community. If you need extra newsletters or someone to call a prospective
member – just let me know.
Development Review Team Report:
During the November 19, 2008 meeting of the Beaufort County Development Review Team the following projects located on Lady’s
Island were considered.

Club Kojack – This item consisted of an existing building located on Club Road (adjacent to the BB&T Bank on Lady’s Island Drive) which was requesting “grandfather” status in that it was alleged to have been in operation since the passage of the 1997 Comprehensive Plan. “Grandfather” status is granted to businesses which were in operation when the Comprehensive Plan came into effect and were made nonconforming with the new zoning. This designation allows such businesses to continue in operation as a matter of fairness. The DRT ruled that the business could receive “grandfather” status upon presentation of satisfactory evidence that the business was in fact in operation in 1997 and has continued in active operation ever since. It was noted that a business license would be required.

Tidal Creek Fellowship Church – The Tidal Creek Fellowship Church submitted a conceptual plan for the construction of a 15,000 square foot church with a 290 space parking lot to be located on 20 acres on Brickyard Point Road. The members of the DRT conducted a general review of the plans and noted some basic problems with the plan in regard to protection of wetlands. This was only an initial review of the plan and many other reviews will be required prior to approval. The basic plan for the church is available for viewing at www.tidalcreek.net/nextstep.asp.
The Role Of The Military On The Lowcountry Economy:
During these challenging economic times it is worth remembering that the Marine Corps Air Station, Marine Corps Recruit Depot and Naval Hospital employ 6,500 active duty military personnel and 1,800 civilians with an annual payroll of over $375 million dollars. Families and friends who visit the area to see their son or daughter graduate from recruit training are estimated to spend over $7 million annually in the local economy. The military presence in Beaufort is responsible for a total of $717.5 million in sales at local businesses. This translates into an estimated 17,500 jobs and $614 million in personal income. The military is the second largest employer in Beaufort County. The largest employer is the Beaufort County School District. Both the Air Station and the Recruit Depot have plans for future expansion.

That we should strive to expand the local economic base is an accepted fact. However, in times such as we are presently experiencing it would appear appropriate to pause and appreciate the role our military bases play not only in the security of our nation but also the economic viability of our community.
Development Of Port Royal Island - The Real Test Of The Northern Regional Plan:  by Jim Hicks, Lady's Island Representative Beaufort County Planning Commission
The real test of the Northern Regional Plan will occur on Port Royal Island which is designated as being within the future growth area of the City of Beaufort and the Town of Port Royal. Lady’s Island, which is also within the growth boundary of the City of Beaufort, is, for the most part, already developed and depending on the rate of growth could see “build out” within the next decade or so. This is not true of Port Royal Island in that it still has a great deal of undeveloped rural property. How the three governments handle the transition of this large island from a rural, undeveloped area into an urban municipality could be the key to how well northern Beaufort County survives future growth pressure. Both the Town of Port Royal and the City of Beaufort are developing their comprehensive plans which will remain in effect for the next decade. What a great opportunity to really plan together the future growth of Port Royal Island. Following are some basic facts regarding Port Royal Island.

How big is Port Royal Island? 29,446 acres or 46 square miles
Who governs it? City of Beaufort – 9,977 acres of which 4,532 acres is MCAS, Beaufort and 4,292 acres is Clarendon Farm.
Town of Port Royal – 2,787 acres (Does not include 7,236 acre Parris Island) Beaufort County – 16,682 acres
Who is developing it? Following are the building permits, by type, issued for Port Royal Island in the last 8 years and the number of commercial square feet contained in the new commercial buildings. Residential data represents number of buildings, not number of units.
                    .
What is an ACUIZ? – The Air Installation Compatible Use Zone (ACUIZ) on Port Royal Island consists of 1,000 acres adjacent to the Marine Corps Air Station which is prohibited from high density development and is designed to balance the need for aircraft operations, community safety and exposure to aircraft noise.

Manufactured Homes. There are 3,727 manufactured homes on Port Royal Island. Of these 3,374 are located in the unincorporated (county) portion of the island, 259 in the Town of Port Royal and 94 in the City of Beaufort.

Sleeping giants in regard to growth (authorized development). Over the past years the respective governments have approved residential projects on Port Royal Island that either have not begun to be developed or, as in the case of Habersham, are still in the process of developing.

♦ Beaufort County Planned Unit Developments and Community Preservation Area
Habersham (Planned Unit Development) – 1,120 units
Burlington (Planned Unit Development) – 1,000 units (undeveloped)
Seabrook Community Preservation Area – 333 units with a potential for another 660 units or a total of 998 units.
♦ City of Beaufort Planned Unit Developments
Clarendon Farm (4,202 acres) – Presently undeveloped but authorized to build 7,000 units as part of a planned unit development agreement.
♦ Town of Port Royal Planned Unit Developments
The Town of Port Royal presently has 11 active (authorized but not completed) planned unit developments which together authorize 511 single family detached units, 339 single family attached and 466 multifamily units. Remaining undeveloped are 291 single family detached units, 276 attached units and 466 multifamily units.
Unresolved Issues
♦ Future of the McCloud farm.
♦ Where should the primary commercial areas be located?
♦ Clarendon Farm – Develop or be placed in a conservation easement.
♦ Cherokee Farms (Planned Unit Development) – 315 units (Negotiations are still ongoing)
♦ When will Burlington PUD (1,000 units) develop?
♦ Future of Port Royal Rail Right of Way – Utility corridor and bike/walking path?
♦ Northern By-Pass – Feasibility/desirability study in progress.
♦ ACUIZ – (1) Can a viable Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) Program be established? (2) Will the present ACUIZ be adequate in size upon arrival of the new F-35 aircraft at MCAS Beaufort in 2013?

As can be seen, to guide the growth and development of Port Royal Island over the next decade will be difficult, challenging and require a great deal of coordination, cooperation and compromise. The Northern Regional Plan is a very basic document that says the respective governments will work together to find solutions to the challenges of growth in northern Beaufort County. To guide the future growth on Port Royal Island will pose a very real test of the plan, the planners and the elected officials. One only has to go south of the Broad River to see what could be the results of the failure of the plan. Lets all try very hard – this is too great a place to lose.
A Snapshot Of The City Of Beaufort:
As part of the process to develop a new City of Beaufort Comprehensive Plan the consultants gathered the following information regarding the City:
                      
The Lawrence Group, which is the company hired to prepare the new comprehensive plan, held a week long charrette designed to allow the residents of Beaufort to share their thoughts regarding the future of the city. On November 17th the consultants gathered all of the information received and presented their initial thoughts as to how the City of Beaufort should grow in the future. This presentation is available at their web site (www.visionbeaufort.blogspot.com).
Foreclosure And Bankruptcy Report:
The total number of Beaufort County foreclosures and bankruptcy proceedings north of the Broad River remained stable during November showing only an increase of 2 cases from the previous month. The area of Beaufort County south of the Broad River was another story in that it saw an increase from the previous month of 35 homes involved in foreclosures and 11 additional homes involved in bankruptcy.
                     
The basic data presented in this article is derived from www.foreclosure.com.
How Is The Economy Affecting The Road Sales Tax?:
In November 2006 the voters of Beaufort County approved implementation of a 1% sales tax for the purpose of raising $152 million
to be used for specifically identified transportation projects. This tax was authorized to continue for 6 years or until the $152 million
was raised, whichever occurred first. Included in the projects to be funded by the receipts from this tax was the $35.5 million for widening of Lady’s Island Drive and a second bridge parallel to the McTeer Bridge. On October 16, 2008 the Dennis Corporation,
which is the company hired to oversee the execution of the projects to be funded by the sales tax, provided a report to Beaufort County Council which included a review of the funds received to date. Following is the information provided in this regard.
                    
As can be seen the amount of money actually being generated by the 1% Transportation Sales Tax is exceeding the amount required to collect the $152 million over a 6 year period as authorized by the voters. With a shaky national and local economy there is no guarantee this trend will continue but “so far – so good”.
Lady's island Bridge Facts:
With the scheduled construction of another bridge parallel to the McTeer Bridge (estimated cost $17.5 million) it only seems appropriate to take a quick look at the history of the Lady’s Island Bridges over the Beaufort River.

Richard V. Woods Memorial Bridge
Construction – 1957 by the Diamond Construction Company
(Replaced an earlier swing span built in 1925-26. When the new bridge was completed the older bridge was salvaged and moved to a location near Purysburg, in Jasper County. It is now sometimes used by the logging industry.)
Cost - $350,000
Length – 2,290 feet
Daily Capacity – 18,000 vehicle trips
Name – Renamed in 1973 in honor of slain SC Patrolman Richard V. Woods.

J. E. McTeer Bridge
Construction – 1980 -81
Cost - $6.5 million
Length – 4,210 feet
Daily Capacity 18,000 vehicle trips
Name – Named for James Edwin McTeer, famous author and long time Beaufort County Sheriff

Today the present traffic, over the 2 bridges, is about 43,900 vehicles per day. When we get the second bridge, parallel to the McTeer Bridge, the capacity will increase to 50,400 vehicles per day. Traffic and growth studies predict that if we can reasonably limit our growth the new bridge will not reach capacity until after 2025. When we say the key to coping with growth on Lady’s Island is the bridges, these numbers show the challenge quite clearly.
Business Support - Your Local Chamber Of Commerce: by Carlotta Ungaro, President, Beaufort Regional Chamber Of Commerce
When times are lean, businesses must look for every advantage possible. Business organizations like the Beaufort Regional Chamber of Commerce and the Lady’s Island Business and Professional Association are a great value that helps businesses generate more revenue and reduce costs. Business organizations provide marketing opportunities, offer resources for businesses
to gain knowledge on operating better and advocate for small business in the public policy arena. I want to thank LIBPA for this opportunity to talk about what the Chamber does.

Customers’ Opinions
Last year, Atlanta-based market research firm, The Schapiro Group did an extensive study for the Association of Chamber of Commerce Executives. The study revealed that respondents were 44 percent more likely to rate a business favorably when told it is affiliated with the local chamber. Respondents were also 63 percent more likely to want to purchase goods or services from a small business that is a chamber member. Additionally, 59 percent of consumers think that being active in the local chamber of commerce is an effective business strategy overall.

Marketing Opportunities
The Chamber is in the business of providing its members opportunities to get the word out about their business. These include networking events, directory and web listings, discount programs and advertising/sponsorship opportunities. The Beaufort Regional Chamber is the designated marketing organization for the City of Beaufort, the Town of Port Royal and Beaufort County, the Chamber markets the area to tourists, operates the Visitor Center and partners with the Marine Corps in providing information to graduates’ families. These activities bring tourists (i.e. customers) to local businesses.

Resources for Businesses
The Beaufort Regional Chamber provides learning opportunities to help businesses operate more efficiently and effectively. Our Business and Brainfood classes provide information on topics ranging from e-commerce to marketing strategy to hiring the right employees. The Chamber recently launched Lunch and Learn programs which offer similar classes at a different time. The Chamber’s Consultants On Demand provides members with one to three hours of free consulting from experts in a variety of topics. The website features business resource links to help businesses find answers to questions.

Advocacy
Investing in a Chamber membership does more than provide a business with new customers; it helps to keep the economy viable. Public policy activities are long-term projects that need constant support and attention to keep the direction moving forward.

The Chamber is the primary advocate on business issues at the local level and partners with other Chambers to support business issues at the state and federal level. The Chamber has successfully worked on legislation supporting the military bases, economic development policy and infrastructure concerns. Also, the Chamber works closely with the schools and other workforce service providers to improve the quality of the workforce in the area.

Editor’s Note: As a matter of policy LIBPA and the Beaufort Regional Chamber of Commerce work very hard to complement each other’s efforts to promote the local business community.
A Note From District 124 Representative Shannon Erickson:
Dear Friends and Constituents of House District 124,

Over the past several months of this election season, I had the wonderful opportunity to visit with old friends, make new ones, and chat with folks all over our corner of Beaufort County. While ideas and ideals were shared and debated, the common sentiment I heard was that of stewardship. Almost everyone I spoke with shared their passion of what Beaufort, South Carolina should be taking care of: our environment, our economy, our elderly, our service men & women and veterans, our education system, our tourism market, our children, our roads & bridges, and our non-profit groups, just to name a few.

With all of those priorities and more in mind, I asked for and was honored with re-election as your Representative for SC House District 124. I do not take this responsibility lightly and I thank all of you who supported my candidacy in thoughts, words, and deeds and pledge my continued dedication and “can-do” attitude. I also promise to work hard for another two years in the hopes that I may earn the support of those who did not see me as their first choice for this position.

Beaufort is a special place because of our heritage, blending of cultures, variety of interests, and vast wealth of resources. It is my goal to represent you and be your voice in Columbia, just as though you were there yourself. To that end, I hope you will always contact me with your thoughts and issues. My email is shannonerickson@schouse.org and my cell phone number is 843.263.1867.

I wish everyone a blessed holiday season and hope to see you out and about at any number of wonderful occasions that our community boasts during this festive time of year!

With warmest regards,
Shannon
Representative Shannon S. Erickson
South Carolina House of Representatives
District 124- Beaufort
When Our Swing Bridge dies...: By Rick Butler, LIBPA Transportation Representative
 Attending a City of Beaufort citizen input session on their transportation “ vision for the future “ session recently, I was struck by the nearly complete lack of concern for one of Northern Beaufort County’s biggest oncoming traffic disasters. Then, I realized that many in the City look far differently at our ancient swing bridge than those of us who depend on it to commute or visit businesses in town.

The citizen input to the “vision” session was also strongly in favor of moving Highway 21 out to Highway 280, and narrowing Ribaut
Road to a two lane local street, possibly with bike and pedestrian paths in place of two present traffic lanes.

Less than a week after that City “vision workshop”, our old swing bridge suffered another mechanical failure, delaying hundreds of cars gridlocked on ( a still four lane) Ribaut Road trying to detour to the McTeer bridge. However, few of those caught in the bridge failure’s traffic snarls live on the Beaufort side—most were Sea Islanders trying to return home. They were us!

So, this month let us pretend a bit, based on what surely is coming our way. Let us pretend that sometime in the next 10 to 15 years, as our creakingly slow bridge nears 90 years old, that it finally dies of old age, or that one of the tug and barge combinations which regularly crash into the wooden fendering finally breaks through and knocks the bridge off its foundation.

This is not a far-fetched scenario to be thinking seriously about. We’ve already had our high bridge knocked out by a tug and barge. Just a few days ago, the Lady’s Island swing bridge suffered an age-related gearbox problem, causing it to be closed to both boat and vehicle traffic, again. A few years ago it was a roller path problem which closed the bridge for overhaul. In 10 to 15 years, the Lady’s Island swing bridge will probably be the oldest, nearly the only, surviving swing bridge of its type on the entire ICW. Every other community in the entire Southeast has demanded and gotten built more modern replacement bridges. None of those few which remain carries the volume of traffic, or incurs the size of backed up lines of traffic when it opens as our swing bridge. How long can our old bridge stand up to ever increasing traffic volumes? How many more complete traffic snarling breakdowns will we suffer?

Why look at a 10 to 15 year horizon? Because that is about as soon as the next bridge connecting all the Sea Islands might get to be designed, funded and built. As to the concept of a “Beaufort Beltway” using a bridge out beyond the Air Station to somewhere near Brickyard Point – that is presently being studied (again) and hopefully will provide definitive data on which to support or oppose the concept. For discussion purposes lets say the study supports a Brickyard Point bridge, it gets funded and built, at which time (in a perfect world) the swing bridge gives up, or is toppled, or declared unsafe, or whatever. Ribaut Road has been narrowed and only serves local traffic; Highway 21 is routed through Cross Creek.

How do the merchants of downtown Beaufort, even the merchants and owners of the Town Center, survive? Almost as many people in their customer population live on Lady’s Island as in Beaufort proper, many more if we include all the Sea Islands. That’s about half of the total customer base of most Beaufort merchants and restaurants and offices. The recent spike in gas made all of us aware of the distance factor when deciding where to shop or dine. Following are a few distance factors that should be considered when discussing bridges and Lady’s Island.
---- On Highway 21 Business today the City of Beaufort Boundary Street business district, over the swing bridge, trip is under 4 miles.
---- On Highway 21 today, over the McTeer Bridge and Ribaut Road, trip is about 8 miles.

But in the future with a finally broken swing bridge, and the new Northern Bypass, here’s what that trip might look like,
---- On a relocated Highway 21, via Cross Creek, over 12 miles.
---- Via the Northern Bypass, around the Air Station, about 16 miles.

Plainly put, approving the Northern Bypass idea as our next connection to the mainland could one day easily put Lady’s Islanders
twice as far away from our neighbor city, and three or four times as far using an altered Highway 21 or the much-touted Northern Bypass. It also works the other way for businesses and professional offices on Lady’s Island. Will our customers and clients in Beaufort continue to shop on Lady’s Island if it requires a drive of 8 to 16 miles to get here?

Ah well, as pointed out, this is imagineering, not yet reality… The Woods Memorial swing bridge is again undergoing major repairs as this is written, and may yet live to 2057 to celebrate its 100th year. But if it does not, and we are left with a large circular beltway around Beaufort, and no more direct route to town, great and permanent adjustments in our lives and business fortunes may occur. Might this issue -- of where the only bridge which may be built in the next 20 years is to be located -- bear closer thought before the businesses of the City of Beaufort and Lady’s Islanders find they have lost the opportunity to push for some sort of Mid-Island bridge closer to our real population and business centers?

After all, the front page picture in the Beaufort newspaper just a few days ago on November 20 was of a police barricade at the “closed for traffic” Woods Memorial Bridge. Those caught on both sides of the broken bridge, and those vessels caught in the ICW, were snarled for hours, probably days, due to this “fair warning” mechanical failure. How much stronger a hint do we require that our next bridge connection might clearly need to be a replacement for our antique swing bridge, much nearer to town than the distant, lengthy and still questionably needed “Northern Bypass” beltway bridge?
Making Decisions Using Quantitative Models: by John Stewart, Economic Consultant & Co-Chair The Coalition For Smart Growth
We face daunting decisions at every level of public life, but one must muster the wit, courage and good will to move forward deliberately. At the local level, we are taking decisions about land use alternatives that will have important long-term impacts on current and future residents’ quality of life. Land use is interrelated in complicated ways with our social, economic and environmental systems. This complexity argues for the use of quantitative models to help us understand the potential repercussions that our choices can have on our lives in terms of jobs, taxes, traffic, environmental impact, and so forth. As someone who has spent a large part of his professional life engaged in economic analysis, I believe in the usefulness of mathematical models, but I am also aware of major limitations involved. There are technical problems and there are moral problems.

First of all, reality is much more complicated than the theoretical models we can build. There are also limitations to the quantity and quality of data we collect to put into them. Models are difficult to construct, not only because of the complexity of the systems we are analyzing but also because we are trying to model intelligent systems composed of thinking human beings. Behavior in social groups is partly determined by the ideas of its members. When their ideas change, their behavior can change. The very act of examining a social system and reporting the results can change its behavior: Predict a recession and you may get a recession.
Second, in order to deal with complexity, model-makers must employ “simplifying assumptions”. Simplification inevitably leads to the loss of information, but there is also a further risk of bias in the selection process used to make these simplifying assumptions. Now we are talking politics. The old joke among consultants is that politicians use studies the way drunks use lampposts: For support rather than illumination. Since there are many ways that simplifying assumptions can be honestly selected, and since different assumptions can produce very different results, a politician who has already made up his/her mind can pick and choose whatever study suits the purpose at hand. Worse still, when a prejudiced politician is paying to have a study done, preliminary simplifying assumptions that do not yield the desired results, can be replaced by another set of assumptions, often reasonable as well, that yields the pre-selected result.

Finally, it is important to understand that users of quantitative socioeconomic models do not benefit from regulatory protections, such as, for example, those that are provided for consumers of pharmaceuticals or air transport. There is nothing like the Food and Drug Administration to require that double-blind studies of quantitative economic models should be performed to test their effectiveness or accuracy. Nothing akin to the National Transportation Safety Board has ordered 5,000 hours of successful flying time for these models before the public is allowed to climb aboard. In this time of global economic meltdown, largely unforeseen, it is not hard to make people aware of this limitation, but another caveat is perhaps less obvious: Among the many economic models that failed to predict the timing and extent of our current financial crisis, there are no doubt a few that got some of it right. It is important to remember that with an infinite number of monkeys banging away on word processors (they are much faster than typewriters.), some monkey will manage to write Hamlet. However that monkey is not necessarily Shakespeare.

What are honest citizens and leaders to do? Use the models, but use them wisely. More complex does not necessarily mean more realistic. Use sensitivity analysis, which is to say that, whenever feasible, apply an alternative range of reasonable assumptions to the model and see how the results are affected. If the results then spread across both acceptable and unacceptable outcomes, you are warned that the model is not a strong guide to decision-making. Sometimes you get lucky and the spread of outcomes lies largely within one zone or the other, acceptable or unacceptable, and then you have a stronger guide to decision-making.

Beyond the quantitative models, good decision-making must take into account everyone’s relevant points of view and every kind of information and analysis that could be pertinent to the decision. Use common sense. Use uncommon sense. I think this Taoist parable tells us something about how to proceed:

Joshu asked the teacher Nansen, “What is the true Way?”
Nansen answered, “Everyday way is the true Way.”
Joshu asked, “Can I study it?”
Nansen answered, “The more you study it, the further from the Way.”
Joshu asked, “If I don’t study it, how can I know it?”
Nansen answered, “The Way does not belong to things seen; nor to things unseen. It does not belong to things known; nor to
things unknown. Do not seek it, study it or name it.
To find yourself on it, open yourself wide as the sky.”
                                                                                                                     (From R. Hofstadter, Godel, Escher and Bach.)

Editor’s Note: This article is in response to a query by LIBPA to Dr. Stewart for guidance on the appropriate value to be given to economic models when evaluating development proposals. Dr. Stewart is a LIBPA member, charter member of the Coalition for Smart Growth and an economic consultant presently working in Africa. He earned his PhD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. He has been an Assistant Professor at Hampden Sydney College and was an Assistant and Associate Professor at the American University in Cairo for seven years. He has over 30 years of experience in the Middle East, Caribbean, South America and Africa in economic development and international trade policy analysis and project implementation.